{ "x402Version": 2, "id": 1363, "slug": "1363", "resource": "https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist", "description": "Live Polymarket watchlist ranked by structural UMA resolution base-rate signals, with flip risk kept as a separate conditional axis. BEFORE YOU PAY: free substitute https://dash.polym.uk/markets.json and https://dash.polym.uk/uma-base-rates.json. THIS ADDS: The live subset ranked by structural dispute signals, computed for you. The inputs are in the free files; the ranking and the tiering are what this adds.", "type": "http", "accepts": [ { "scheme": "exact", "network": "eip155:8453", "payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3", "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913", "amount": "50000", "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300 } ], "outputSchema": { "bazaar": { "info": { "input": { "method": "GET", "queryParams": { "top": 25 }, "type": "http" }, "output": { "example": { "asOf": "2026-09-01T02:31:34.907Z", "caveats": [ "SHOWCASE, NOT THE PAID RESPONSE: what you see is one ranked row of the watchlist. markets is cut to 1 of the 8 rows this response carried. Nothing is masked or invented: every value is a dated measurement, kept so you can read the shape, the units and the field semantics. The schema published beside it is complete; a paid call returns the complete set.", "EXAMPLE ONLY: a paid response captured from api.polym.uk on 2026-09-01 with top=8, then frozen. A live response carries its own asOf and current values. The row count is bounded by the 402 challenge header budget, not by the route: top accepts 1 through 40.", "Structural BASE RATE for the category and criterion. Not a prediction that THIS market will be disputed or reversed. A fact, not an accusation.", "tier uses the RANK-stable signal (category elevated by consensus across two samples, plus a title with no checkable threshold, read from the TITLE and not from the resolution rules), not the absolute dispute rate, which varies about 16-fold between samples.", "LIVE markets only, and liveness must have been MEASURED (marketClosed === false). A market whose Gamma context was not fetched is absent rather than assumed open. Drawn from the set decomposed by window volume; this is not the whole Polymarket universe.", "flipProne is omitted when the category flip sample is small and therefore directional. Category is a title heuristic." ], "flipReferencePct": 14.6, "flipReferenceStatus": "measured", "flipReferenceWithheldReason": null, "howToRead": "Ranks LIVE markets by STRUCTURAL resolution risk. tier counts how many DISPUTE-axis signals are present (category elevated by consensus, plus a title with no checkable threshold): elevated=2, watch=1, baseline=0. flipProne is a separate axis: if disputed, the outcome tends to REVERSE (category rate at or above the overall rate). Both axes are conditional, and flip alone never raises the tier.", "liveMarketsRanked": 8, "markets": [ { "apparentVolumeUsd": 46599.79, "category": "Geopolitics", "categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume": 35.2, "categoryElevated": true, "conditionId": "0x9b94d7e2e7250d156b02435f4d59634d357dc789d842eaee15c35c1158d5bca4", "disputeFlagCount": 2, "flags": { "categoryElevated": true, "flipProne": false, "titleLooksUncheckable": true }, "flipRatePct": null, "marketClosed": false, "tier": "elevated", "title": "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?", "titleLooksUncheckable": true } ], "tierCounts": { "elevated": 6, "watch": 2 }, "windowHours": 71.94 }, "type": "json" } }, "schema": { "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema", "properties": { "input": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "method": { "enum": [ "GET" ], "type": "string" }, "queryParams": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "top": { "default": 25, "maximum": 40, "minimum": 1, "type": "integer" } }, "type": "object" }, "type": { "const": "http", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type", "method" ], "type": "object" }, "output": { "properties": { "example": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "asOf": { "format": "date-time", "type": "string" }, "caveats": { "items": { "type": "string" }, "type": "array" }, "flipReferencePct": { "description": "Overall flip reference rate, in percent. `null` means WITHHELD, never a default: see flipReferenceStatus and flipReferenceWithheldReason. When it is null, flipProne was not evaluated on any row.", "maximum": 100, "minimum": 0, "type": [ "number", "null" ] }, "flipReferenceStatus": { "enum": [ "measured", "withheld" ], "type": "string" }, "flipReferenceWithheldReason": { "type": [ "string", "null" ] }, "howToRead": { "type": "string" }, "liveMarketsRanked": { "minimum": 0, "type": "integer" }, "markets": { "items": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "apparentVolumeUsd": { "minimum": 0, "type": "number" }, "category": { "type": "string" }, "categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume": { "maximum": 100, "minimum": 0, "type": "number" }, "categoryElevated": { "type": "boolean" }, "conditionId": { "description": "Polymarket condition ID.", "pattern": "^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{64}$", "type": "string" }, "disputeFlagCount": { "minimum": 0, "type": "integer" }, "flags": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "categoryElevated": { "description": "Category flagged elevated by consensus across both dispute samples. Dispute axis; counts toward tier.", "type": "boolean" }, "flipProne": { "description": "Separate conditional axis: if disputed, this category reverses at or above the overall rate. Never raises the tier.", "type": "boolean" }, "titleLooksUncheckable": { "description": "The title states no checkable threshold. Dispute axis; counts toward tier. Read from the title only.", "type": "boolean" } }, "required": [ "categoryElevated", "titleLooksUncheckable", "flipProne" ], "type": "object" }, "flipRatePct": { "maximum": 100, "minimum": 0, "type": [ "number", "null" ] }, "marketClosed": { "type": [ "boolean", "null" ] }, "tier": { "enum": [ "elevated", "watch", "baseline" ], "type": "string" }, "title": { "type": "string" }, "titleLooksUncheckable": { "type": "boolean" } }, "required": [ "conditionId", "title", "tier", "disputeFlagCount", "flags", "category", "titleLooksUncheckable", "categoryElevated", "categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume", "flipRatePct", "apparentVolumeUsd", "marketClosed" ], "type": "object" }, "type": "array" }, "tierCounts": { "additionalProperties": { "minimum": 0, "type": "integer" }, "type": "object" }, "windowHours": { "minimum": 0, "type": "number" } }, "required": [ "asOf", "windowHours", "liveMarketsRanked", "tierCounts", "flipReferencePct", "markets", "howToRead", "caveats" ], "type": "object" }, "type": { "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type" ], "type": "object" } }, "required": [ "input" ], "type": "object" } } }, "tags": [ "bazaar" ], "sourceHost": "api.polym.uk", "lastUpdated": "2026-09-07T10:17:41.388Z", "quality": { "calls30d": 4, "uniquePayers30d": 1, "lastCalledAt": "2026-09-07T10:17:40.631Z" }, "liveness": {}, "verified": false, "featured": false, "provider": { "host": "api.polym.uk", "manifest_name": "api.polym.uk", "source": "cdp-mirror", "source_manifest_url": "https://api.cdp.coinbase.com/platform/v2/x402/discovery/resources", "submitted_at": "2026-09-18T22:00:31.484Z" } }