{
  "x402Version": 2,
  "id": 2981,
  "slug": "2981",
  "resource": "https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability",
  "description": "What does the market think? Ask any event question in plain English and get the implied probability from live Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets: per-venue odds, a liquidity-weighted consensus forecast, and a cross-venue divergence flag.",
  "type": "http",
  "accepts": [
    {
      "scheme": "exact",
      "network": "eip155:8453",
      "payTo": "0x737426d3eD53930B889b3f61774669a0FDf3BE54",
      "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
      "amount": "15000",
      "maxTimeoutSeconds": 60
    }
  ],
  "outputSchema": {
    "bazaar": {
      "info": {
        "input": {
          "body": {
            "maxMarkets": 4,
            "q": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?"
          },
          "bodyType": "json",
          "method": "POST",
          "type": "http"
        },
        "output": {
          "example": {
            "asOf": "2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z",
            "attribution": "Implied probabilities and resolution status are derived from public Polymarket and Kalshi market data by x402.fenixfoundry.com. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a data feed of either venue. Informational only, not investment advice.",
            "confidence": 0.82,
            "divergence": 0.05,
            "markets": [
              {
                "closeTime": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
                "id": "fed-rate-cut-september-2026",
                "liquidity": 412000,
                "matchScore": 0.91,
                "probability": 0.64,
                "question": "Will the Fed cut interest rates before September 2026?",
                "status": "open",
                "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-september-2026",
                "venue": "polymarket",
                "volume": 1850000
              },
              {
                "closeTime": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
                "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP",
                "liquidity": 88000,
                "matchScore": 0.83,
                "probability": 0.59,
                "question": "Fed cuts rates at or before the September 2026 meeting",
                "status": "open",
                "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision-26sep",
                "venue": "kalshi",
                "volume": 240000
              }
            ],
            "probability": 0.6312,
            "query": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?",
            "source": "index"
          },
          "type": "json"
        }
      },
      "schema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "input": {
            "additionalProperties": false,
            "properties": {
              "body": {
                "additionalProperties": false,
                "properties": {
                  "maxMarkets": {
                    "default": 6,
                    "description": "Maximum number of matched markets to aggregate and return (top-K by match quality). Defaults to 6.",
                    "maximum": 10,
                    "minimum": 1,
                    "type": "integer"
                  },
                  "q": {
                    "description": "Natural-language description of the event you want odds for, e.g. \"Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?\". Matched against Polymarket and Kalshi market questions.",
                    "maxLength": 500,
                    "minLength": 3,
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "required": [
                  "q"
                ],
                "type": "object"
              },
              "bodyType": {
                "enum": [
                  "json",
                  "form-data",
                  "text"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "method": {
                "enum": [
                  "POST"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "type": {
                "const": "http",
                "type": "string"
              }
            },
            "required": [
              "type",
              "method",
              "bodyType",
              "body"
            ],
            "type": "object"
          },
          "output": {
            "properties": {
              "example": {
                "properties": {
                  "asOf": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "attribution": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "confidence": {
                    "description": "0..1 — match quality x venue coverage x liquidity.",
                    "type": "number"
                  },
                  "divergence": {
                    "description": "Highest minus lowest venue probability; a large value means the venues disagree.",
                    "type": [
                      "number",
                      "null"
                    ]
                  },
                  "markets": {
                    "description": "Top-K matched markets only, never a bulk market dump.",
                    "items": {
                      "properties": {
                        "closeTime": {
                          "type": [
                            "string",
                            "null"
                          ]
                        },
                        "id": {
                          "description": "Polymarket slug or Kalshi ticker.",
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "liquidity": {
                          "type": [
                            "number",
                            "null"
                          ]
                        },
                        "matchScore": {
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "probability": {
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "question": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "status": {
                          "enum": [
                            "open",
                            "closed",
                            "resolved"
                          ],
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "url": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "venue": {
                          "enum": [
                            "polymarket",
                            "kalshi"
                          ],
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "volume": {
                          "type": [
                            "number",
                            "null"
                          ]
                        }
                      },
                      "required": [
                        "venue",
                        "id",
                        "question",
                        "url",
                        "probability"
                      ],
                      "type": "object"
                    },
                    "type": "array"
                  },
                  "probability": {
                    "description": "Liquidity-weighted cross-venue implied probability, 0..1. Null when no market matched.",
                    "type": [
                      "number",
                      "null"
                    ]
                  },
                  "query": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "source": {
                    "enum": [
                      "index",
                      "live"
                    ],
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "required": [
                  "probability",
                  "confidence",
                  "markets",
                  "divergence",
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              },
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              }
            },
            "required": [
              "type"
            ],
            "type": "object"
          }
        },
        "required": [
          "input"
        ],
        "type": "object"
      }
    }
  },
  "tags": [
    "bazaar"
  ],
  "sourceHost": "x402.fenixfoundry.com",
  "lastUpdated": "2026-09-05T03:16:31.64Z",
  "quality": {
    "calls30d": 4,
    "uniquePayers30d": 2,
    "lastCalledAt": "2026-09-05T03:16:31.295Z"
  },
  "liveness": {},
  "verified": false,
  "featured": false,
  "provider": {
    "host": "x402.fenixfoundry.com",
    "manifest_name": "x402.fenixfoundry.com",
    "source": "cdp-mirror",
    "source_manifest_url": "https://api.cdp.coinbase.com/platform/v2/x402/discovery/resources",
    "submitted_at": "2026-09-18T22:00:31.484Z"
  }
}