{
  "x402Version": 2,
  "id": 29951,
  "slug": "29951",
  "resource": "https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug",
  "description": "Blended event probability across Kalshi and Polymarket for one market — Liquidity-weighted blend of venue implied probabilities for a canonical market slug, with per-venue detail, cross-venue divergence, and the last 1h move. Resolved markets return 410 RESOLVED with the outcome. Find slugs via /v1/probability/search.",
  "type": "http",
  "serviceName": "x402-factory",
  "resourceType": "Market Data",
  "accepts": [
    {
      "scheme": "exact",
      "network": "eip155:8453",
      "payTo": "0xCc42Ed39a06b6cF3f484307eF76B88Bf56Fb305f",
      "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
      "amount": "20000",
      "amountUsd": 0.02,
      "maxTimeoutSeconds": 120
    }
  ],
  "outputSchema": {
    "properties": {
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        "properties": {
          "data": {
            "additionalProperties": false,
            "properties": {
              "category": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "divergence": {
                "maximum": 1,
                "minimum": 0,
                "type": "number"
              },
              "last_move_1h": {
                "type": "number"
              },
              "per_venue": {
                "items": {
                  "additionalProperties": false,
                  "properties": {
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                      "minimum": 0,
                      "type": "number"
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                      "maximum": 1,
                      "minimum": 0,
                      "type": "number"
                    },
                    "market_id": {
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "venue": {
                      "enum": [
                        "kalshi",
                        "polymarket"
                      ],
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "volume_24h_usd": {
                      "type": "number"
                    }
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                    "market_id",
                    "implied_p",
                    "volume_24h_usd",
                    "liquidity_score"
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                "type": "array"
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                "minimum": 0,
                "type": "number"
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              "question": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "resolution_criteria_summary": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "resolution_date": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "slug": {
                "type": "string"
              }
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              "question",
              "probability",
              "per_venue",
              "divergence",
              "category",
              "resolution_date",
              "resolution_criteria_summary",
              "last_move_1h"
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          "meta"
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        "type": "object"
      },
      "type": {
        "type": "string"
      }
    },
    "required": [
      "type"
    ],
    "type": "object"
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        "input": {
          "method": "GET",
          "pathParams": {
            "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
          },
          "queryParams": {},
          "type": "http"
        },
        "output": {
          "example": {
            "data": {
              "category": "economics",
              "divergence": 0.0095,
              "last_move_1h": -0.001,
              "per_venue": [
                {
                  "implied_p": 0.7359,
                  "liquidity_score": 0.947,
                  "market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
                  "venue": "kalshi",
                  "volume_24h_usd": 204455.43
                },
                {
                  "implied_p": 0.7264,
                  "liquidity_score": 0.98,
                  "market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
                  "venue": "polymarket",
                  "volume_24h_usd": 249729.17
                }
              ],
              "probability": 0.7301,
              "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
              "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting.",
              "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
              "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
            },
            "meta": {
              "data_mode": "live",
              "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
              "endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
              "freshness": "realtime",
              "generated_at": "2026-09-29T05:40:59.299Z",
              "request_id": "req_00000000",
              "sources": [
                "kalshi",
                "polymarket"
              ],
              "version": "1.0.0"
            }
          },
          "type": "json"
        }
      },
      "routeTemplate": "/v1/probability/:slug",
      "schema": {
        "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
        "properties": {
          "input": {
            "additionalProperties": false,
            "properties": {
              "method": {
                "enum": [
                  "GET"
                ],
                "type": "string"
              },
              "pathParams": {
                "properties": {
                  "slug": {
                    "pattern": "^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$",
                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "required": [
                  "slug"
                ],
                "type": "object"
              },
              "queryParams": {
                "properties": {
                  "venue": {
                    "default": "blend",
                    "enum": [
                      "kalshi",
                      "polymarket",
                      "blend"
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                    "type": "string"
                  }
                },
                "required": [],
                "type": "object"
              },
              "type": {
                "const": "http",
                "type": "string"
              }
            },
            "required": [
              "type",
              "method"
            ],
            "type": "object"
          },
          "output": {
            "properties": {
              "example": {
                "properties": {
                  "data": {
                    "additionalProperties": false,
                    "properties": {
                      "category": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "divergence": {
                        "maximum": 1,
                        "minimum": 0,
                        "type": "number"
                      },
                      "last_move_1h": {
                        "type": "number"
                      },
                      "per_venue": {
                        "items": {
                          "additionalProperties": false,
                          "properties": {
                            "implied_p": {
                              "maximum": 1,
                              "minimum": 0,
                              "type": "number"
                            },
                            "liquidity_score": {
                              "maximum": 1,
                              "minimum": 0,
                              "type": "number"
                            },
                            "market_id": {
                              "type": "string"
                            },
                            "venue": {
                              "enum": [
                                "kalshi",
                                "polymarket"
                              ],
                              "type": "string"
                            },
                            "volume_24h_usd": {
                              "type": "number"
                            }
                          },
                          "required": [
                            "venue",
                            "market_id",
                            "implied_p",
                            "volume_24h_usd",
                            "liquidity_score"
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                          "type": "object"
                        },
                        "type": "array"
                      },
                      "probability": {
                        "maximum": 1,
                        "minimum": 0,
                        "type": "number"
                      },
                      "question": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "resolution_criteria_summary": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "resolution_date": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "slug": {
                        "type": "string"
                      }
                    },
                    "required": [
                      "slug",
                      "question",
                      "probability",
                      "per_venue",
                      "divergence",
                      "category",
                      "resolution_date",
                      "resolution_criteria_summary",
                      "last_move_1h"
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                    "type": "object"
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                  "meta": {
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                "required": [
                  "data",
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              "type"
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            "type": "object"
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        },
        "required": [
          "input"
        ],
        "type": "object"
      }
    }
  },
  "tags": [
    "prediction",
    "probability",
    "kalshi",
    "polymarket",
    "bazaar"
  ],
  "sourceHost": "x402-factory.com",
  "lastUpdated": "2026-10-01T13:11:24.349Z",
  "quality": {
    "calls30d": 1,
    "uniquePayers30d": 1,
    "lastCalledAt": "2026-10-01T13:11:24.213Z"
  },
  "metadata": {
    "serviceName": "x402-factory",
    "extensions": {
      "bazaar": {
        "info": {
          "input": {
            "method": "GET",
            "pathParams": {
              "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
            },
            "queryParams": {},
            "type": "http"
          },
          "output": {
            "example": {
              "data": {
                "category": "economics",
                "divergence": 0.0095,
                "last_move_1h": -0.001,
                "per_venue": [
                  {
                    "implied_p": 0.7359,
                    "liquidity_score": 0.947,
                    "market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
                    "venue": "kalshi",
                    "volume_24h_usd": 204455.43
                  },
                  {
                    "implied_p": 0.7264,
                    "liquidity_score": 0.98,
                    "market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
                    "venue": "polymarket",
                    "volume_24h_usd": 249729.17
                  }
                ],
                "probability": 0.7301,
                "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
                "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting.",
                "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
                "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
              },
              "meta": {
                "data_mode": "live",
                "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
                "endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
                "freshness": "realtime",
                "generated_at": "2026-09-29T05:40:59.299Z",
                "request_id": "req_00000000",
                "sources": [
                  "kalshi",
                  "polymarket"
                ],
                "version": "1.0.0"
              }
            },
            "type": "json"
          }
        },
        "routeTemplate": "/v1/probability/:slug",
        "schema": {
          "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
          "properties": {
            "input": {
              "additionalProperties": false,
              "properties": {
                "method": {
                  "enum": [
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                  ],
                  "type": "string"
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                "pathParams": {
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                        "kalshi",
                        "polymarket",
                        "blend"
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                }
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                "method"
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                  "properties": {
                    "data": {
                      "additionalProperties": false,
                      "properties": {
                        "category": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "divergence": {
                          "maximum": 1,
                          "minimum": 0,
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "last_move_1h": {
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "per_venue": {
                          "items": {
                            "additionalProperties": false,
                            "properties": {
                              "implied_p": {
                                "maximum": 1,
                                "minimum": 0,
                                "type": "number"
                              },
                              "liquidity_score": {
                                "maximum": 1,
                                "minimum": 0,
                                "type": "number"
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                              "market_id": {
                                "type": "string"
                              },
                              "venue": {
                                "enum": [
                                  "kalshi",
                                  "polymarket"
                                ],
                                "type": "string"
                              },
                              "volume_24h_usd": {
                                "type": "number"
                              }
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                            "required": [
                              "venue",
                              "market_id",
                              "implied_p",
                              "volume_24h_usd",
                              "liquidity_score"
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                            "type": "object"
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                          "type": "array"
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                        "probability": {
                          "maximum": 1,
                          "minimum": 0,
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "question": {
                          "type": "string"
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                        "resolution_criteria_summary": {
                          "type": "string"
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                        "resolution_date": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "slug": {
                          "type": "string"
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                      },
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                        "question",
                        "probability",
                        "per_venue",
                        "divergence",
                        "category",
                        "resolution_date",
                        "resolution_criteria_summary",
                        "last_move_1h"
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                      "type": "object"
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                    "meta": {
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                    "meta"
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                "type": {
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              "type": "object"
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          },
          "required": [
            "input"
          ],
          "type": "object"
        }
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  },
  "liveness": {
    "reliability": null
  },
  "verified": false,
  "featured": false,
  "provider": {
    "host": "x402-factory.com",
    "manifest_name": "x402-factory.com",
    "source": "cdp-mirror",
    "source_manifest_url": "https://api.cdp.coinbase.com/platform/v2/x402/discovery/resources",
    "submitted_at": "2026-10-14T01:15:01.050Z"
  },
  "exampleResponse": {
    "data": {
      "category": "economics",
      "divergence": 0.0095,
      "last_move_1h": -0.001,
      "per_venue": [
        {
          "implied_p": 0.7359,
          "liquidity_score": 0.947,
          "market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "volume_24h_usd": 204455.43
        },
        {
          "implied_p": 0.7264,
          "liquidity_score": 0.98,
          "market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "volume_24h_usd": 249729.17
        }
      ],
      "probability": 0.7301,
      "question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
      "resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting.",
      "resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
      "slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
    },
    "meta": {
      "data_mode": "live",
      "docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
      "endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
      "freshness": "realtime",
      "generated_at": "2026-09-29T05:40:59.299Z",
      "request_id": "req_00000000",
      "sources": [
        "kalshi",
        "polymarket"
      ],
      "version": "1.0.0"
    }
  }
}