{ "x402Version": 2, "id": 30149, "slug": "30149", "resource": "https://alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com/v1/prediction/neg-risk-arbitrage", "description": "Detect basket arbitrage in a Polymarket neg-risk (mutually-exclusive, multi-outcome) event - since a full YES basket across all outcomes always settles to exactly $1, a basket price away from $1 is a near risk-free edge. Also computes buy/sell_basket_capacity_shares, the actual liquidity-bottleneck size executable right now, so this is not just a top-of-book mirage. Polymarket only (Kalshi's Data ToS forbids this use of their data). Paid in USDC on Base.", "type": "http", "serviceName": "AlphaPipeline Neg-Risk Arbitrage", "resourceType": "Utilities", "accepts": [ { "scheme": "exact", "network": "eip155:8453", "payTo": "0x2bcfA4F7E1fA5E96934846A7dEa623398Ed7f752", "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913", "amount": "30000", "amountUsd": 0.03, "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300 } ], "outputSchema": { "properties": { "example": { "properties": { "arbitrage_viable": { "title": "Arbitrage Viable", "type": "boolean" }, "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": { "title": "Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct", "type": "number" }, "basket_ask_sum": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Basket Ask Sum" }, "basket_bid_sum": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Basket Bid Sum" }, "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd" }, "buy_basket_capacity_shares": { "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Shares", "type": "number" }, "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient.", "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd" }, "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd" }, "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Net Edge Usd" }, "data_source": { "title": "Data Source", "type": "string" }, "event_slug": { "title": "Event Slug", "type": "string" }, "generated_at": { "properties": { "kst": { "title": "Kst", "type": "string" }, "utc": { "title": "Utc", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "utc", "kst" ], "title": "TimestampPair", "type": "object" }, "notice": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "string" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Notice" }, "num_outcomes": { "title": "Num Outcomes", "type": "integer" }, "oldest_book_snapshot_time": { "anyOf": [ { "properties": { "kst": { "title": "Kst", "type": "string" }, "utc": { "title": "Utc", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "utc", "kst" ], "title": "TimestampPair", "type": "object" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "The oldest of each leg's own order-book snapshot timestamp - the staleness bottleneck across all legs, since the whole basket calculation is only as fresh as its stalest leg. Null if no leg reported a timestamp." }, "opportunity": { "title": "Opportunity", "type": "string" }, "sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Notional Usd" }, "sell_basket_capacity_shares": { "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Shares", "type": "number" }, "sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "VWAP-priced equivalent of sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd - see buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd.", "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd" }, "sell_basket_gross_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Gross Edge Usd" }, "sell_basket_net_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Net Edge Usd" } }, "required": [ "generated_at", "event_slug", "num_outcomes", "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct", "buy_basket_capacity_shares", "sell_basket_capacity_shares", "opportunity", "arbitrage_viable", "data_source" ], "title": "PredictionNegRiskArbitrageResponse", "type": "object" }, "type": { "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type" ], "type": "object" }, "extensions": { "bazaar": { "info": { "input": { "method": "GET", "queryParams": { "event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028" }, "type": "http" }, "output": { "example": { "arbitrage_viable": true, "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": 1.5, "basket_ask_sum": 0.94, "basket_bid_sum": 0.88, "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": 39.48, "buy_basket_capacity_shares": 42, "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": 39.71, "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": 0.06, "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": 0.045, "data_source": "polymarket-gamma+clob", "event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028", "generated_at": { "kst": "2026-09-08 21:00:00 KST", "utc": "2026-09-08T12:00:00Z" }, "notice": "*_capacity_shares is how many full baskets (1 share of every outcome) you could execute right now within max_slippage_pct of each leg's best price - arbitrage_viable=false with a positive edge usually means the edge is real but too thin to size meaningfully. *_capacity_notional_usd prices that capacity at each leg's top-of-book price, which is optimistic for any size beyond the first price level - *_capacity_vwap_notional_usd instead prices it by walking the same depth used to compute capacity_shares, so it reflects the actual average cost of filling that size (null if depth data was insufficient). oldest_book_snapshot_time is the staleness bottleneck across all legs. Cross-check the specific leg you intend to trade with prediction.exit_capacity_audit before sizing a real position.", "num_outcomes": 5, "oldest_book_snapshot_time": { "kst": "2026-09-08 20:59:58 KST", "utc": "2026-09-08T11:59:58Z" }, "opportunity": "buy_basket", "sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd": 0, "sell_basket_capacity_shares": 0, "sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": null, "sell_basket_gross_edge_usd": -0.12, "sell_basket_net_edge_usd": -0.135 }, "type": "json" } }, "schema": { "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema", "properties": { "input": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "method": { "enum": [ "GET", "HEAD", "DELETE" ], "type": "string" }, "queryParams": { "properties": { "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": { "description": "Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5.", "type": "number" }, "event_slug": { "description": "Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com.", "type": "string" }, "max_slippage_pct": { "description": "How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0.", "type": "number" }, "min_net_edge_pct": { "description": "Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0.", "type": "number" } }, "required": [ "event_slug" ], "type": "object" }, "type": { "const": "http", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type", "method" ], "type": "object" }, "output": { "properties": { "example": { "properties": { "arbitrage_viable": { "title": "Arbitrage Viable", "type": "boolean" }, "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": { "title": "Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct", "type": "number" }, "basket_ask_sum": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Basket Ask Sum" }, "basket_bid_sum": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Basket Bid Sum" }, "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd" }, "buy_basket_capacity_shares": { "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Shares", "type": "number" }, "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient.", "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd" }, "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd" }, "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Net Edge Usd" }, "data_source": { "title": "Data Source", "type": "string" }, "event_slug": { "title": "Event Slug", "type": "string" }, "generated_at": { "properties": { "kst": { "title": "Kst", "type": "string" }, "utc": { "title": "Utc", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "utc", "kst" ], "title": "TimestampPair", "type": "object" }, "notice": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "string" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Notice" }, "num_outcomes": { "title": "Num Outcomes", "type": "integer" }, "oldest_book_snapshot_time": { "anyOf": [ { "properties": { "kst": { "title": "Kst", "type": "string" }, "utc": { "title": "Utc", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "utc", "kst" ], "title": "TimestampPair", "type": "object" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "The oldest of each leg's own order-book snapshot timestamp - the staleness bottleneck across all legs, since the whole basket calculation is only as fresh as its stalest leg. Null if no leg reported a timestamp." }, "opportunity": { "title": "Opportunity", "type": "string" }, "sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Notional Usd" }, "sell_basket_capacity_shares": { "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Shares", "type": "number" }, "sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "VWAP-priced equivalent of sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd - see buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd.", "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd" }, "sell_basket_gross_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Gross Edge Usd" }, "sell_basket_net_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Net Edge Usd" } }, "required": [ "generated_at", "event_slug", "num_outcomes", "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct", "buy_basket_capacity_shares", "sell_basket_capacity_shares", "opportunity", "arbitrage_viable", "data_source" ], "title": "PredictionNegRiskArbitrageResponse", "type": "object" }, "type": { "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type" ], "type": "object" } }, "required": [ "input" ], "type": "object" } } }, "tags": [ "prediction-market", "polymarket", "arbitrage", "bazaar" ], "sourceHost": "alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com", "lastUpdated": "2026-10-01T14:31:23.94Z", "quality": { "calls30d": 1, "uniquePayers30d": 1, "lastCalledAt": "2026-10-01T14:31:23.537Z" }, "metadata": { "serviceName": "AlphaPipeline Neg-Risk Arbitrage", "extensions": { "bazaar": { "info": { "input": { "method": "GET", "queryParams": { "event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028" }, "type": "http" }, "output": { "example": { "arbitrage_viable": true, "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": 1.5, "basket_ask_sum": 0.94, "basket_bid_sum": 0.88, "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": 39.48, "buy_basket_capacity_shares": 42, "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": 39.71, "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": 0.06, "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": 0.045, "data_source": "polymarket-gamma+clob", "event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028", "generated_at": { "kst": "2026-09-08 21:00:00 KST", "utc": "2026-09-08T12:00:00Z" }, "notice": "*_capacity_shares is how many full baskets (1 share of every outcome) you could execute right now within max_slippage_pct of each leg's best price - arbitrage_viable=false with a positive edge usually means the edge is real but too thin to size meaningfully. *_capacity_notional_usd prices that capacity at each leg's top-of-book price, which is optimistic for any size beyond the first price level - *_capacity_vwap_notional_usd instead prices it by walking the same depth used to compute capacity_shares, so it reflects the actual average cost of filling that size (null if depth data was insufficient). oldest_book_snapshot_time is the staleness bottleneck across all legs. Cross-check the specific leg you intend to trade with prediction.exit_capacity_audit before sizing a real position.", "num_outcomes": 5, "oldest_book_snapshot_time": { "kst": "2026-09-08 20:59:58 KST", "utc": "2026-09-08T11:59:58Z" }, "opportunity": "buy_basket", "sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd": 0, "sell_basket_capacity_shares": 0, "sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": null, "sell_basket_gross_edge_usd": -0.12, "sell_basket_net_edge_usd": -0.135 }, "type": "json" } }, "schema": { "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema", "properties": { "input": { "additionalProperties": false, "properties": { "method": { "enum": [ "GET", "HEAD", "DELETE" ], "type": "string" }, "queryParams": { "properties": { "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": { "description": "Estimated all-in cost (Polygon gas for the neg-risk adapter's convert call, taker fees, slippage buffer) as a percentage of $1 basket notional. Defaults to 1.5.", "type": "number" }, "event_slug": { "description": "Polymarket event slug, from the event's URL on polymarket.com.", "type": "string" }, "max_slippage_pct": { "description": "How far past each leg's best price to walk the book when sizing executable basket capacity. Defaults to 1.0.", "type": "number" }, "min_net_edge_pct": { "description": "Minimum net edge (% of $1 basket notional) required to flag arbitrage_viable: true. Defaults to 1.0.", "type": "number" } }, "required": [ "event_slug" ], "type": "object" }, "type": { "const": "http", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type", "method" ], "type": "object" }, "output": { "properties": { "example": { "properties": { "arbitrage_viable": { "title": "Arbitrage Viable", "type": "boolean" }, "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": { "title": "Assumed Round Trip Cost Pct", "type": "number" }, "basket_ask_sum": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Basket Ask Sum" }, "basket_bid_sum": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Basket Bid Sum" }, "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Notional Usd" }, "buy_basket_capacity_shares": { "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Shares", "type": "number" }, "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "Same capacity as buy_basket_capacity_shares, but priced by walking the actual order-book depth (volume-weighted) instead of using each leg's top-of-book price - a more realistic fill cost than buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd. Null if depth data was insufficient.", "title": "Buy Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd" }, "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Gross Edge Usd" }, "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Buy Basket Net Edge Usd" }, "data_source": { "title": "Data Source", "type": "string" }, "event_slug": { "title": "Event Slug", "type": "string" }, "generated_at": { "properties": { "kst": { "title": "Kst", "type": "string" }, "utc": { "title": "Utc", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "utc", "kst" ], "title": "TimestampPair", "type": "object" }, "notice": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "string" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Notice" }, "num_outcomes": { "title": "Num Outcomes", "type": "integer" }, "oldest_book_snapshot_time": { "anyOf": [ { "properties": { "kst": { "title": "Kst", "type": "string" }, "utc": { "title": "Utc", "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "utc", "kst" ], "title": "TimestampPair", "type": "object" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "The oldest of each leg's own order-book snapshot timestamp - the staleness bottleneck across all legs, since the whole basket calculation is only as fresh as its stalest leg. Null if no leg reported a timestamp." }, "opportunity": { "title": "Opportunity", "type": "string" }, "sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Notional Usd" }, "sell_basket_capacity_shares": { "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Shares", "type": "number" }, "sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "description": "VWAP-priced equivalent of sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd - see buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd.", "title": "Sell Basket Capacity Vwap Notional Usd" }, "sell_basket_gross_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Gross Edge Usd" }, "sell_basket_net_edge_usd": { "anyOf": [ { "type": "number" }, { "type": "null" } ], "default": null, "title": "Sell Basket Net Edge Usd" } }, "required": [ "generated_at", "event_slug", "num_outcomes", "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct", "buy_basket_capacity_shares", "sell_basket_capacity_shares", "opportunity", "arbitrage_viable", "data_source" ], "title": "PredictionNegRiskArbitrageResponse", "type": "object" }, "type": { "type": "string" } }, "required": [ "type" ], "type": "object" } }, "required": [ "input" ], "type": "object" } } } }, "liveness": { "reliability": null }, "verified": false, "featured": false, "provider": { "host": "alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com", "manifest_name": "alphapipeline-eu.onrender.com", "source": "cdp-mirror", "source_manifest_url": "https://api.cdp.coinbase.com/platform/v2/x402/discovery/resources", "submitted_at": "2026-10-14T01:15:01.050Z" }, "exampleResponse": { "arbitrage_viable": true, "assumed_round_trip_cost_pct": 1.5, "basket_ask_sum": 0.94, "basket_bid_sum": 0.88, "buy_basket_capacity_notional_usd": 39.48, "buy_basket_capacity_shares": 42, "buy_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": 39.71, "buy_basket_gross_edge_usd": 0.06, "buy_basket_net_edge_usd": 0.045, "data_source": "polymarket-gamma+clob", "event_slug": "presidential-election-winner-2028", "generated_at": { "kst": "2026-09-08 21:00:00 KST", "utc": "2026-09-08T12:00:00Z" }, "notice": "*_capacity_shares is how many full baskets (1 share of every outcome) you could execute right now within max_slippage_pct of each leg's best price - arbitrage_viable=false with a positive edge usually means the edge is real but too thin to size meaningfully. *_capacity_notional_usd prices that capacity at each leg's top-of-book price, which is optimistic for any size beyond the first price level - *_capacity_vwap_notional_usd instead prices it by walking the same depth used to compute capacity_shares, so it reflects the actual average cost of filling that size (null if depth data was insufficient). oldest_book_snapshot_time is the staleness bottleneck across all legs. Cross-check the specific leg you intend to trade with prediction.exit_capacity_audit before sizing a real position.", "num_outcomes": 5, "oldest_book_snapshot_time": { "kst": "2026-09-08 20:59:58 KST", "utc": "2026-09-08T11:59:58Z" }, "opportunity": "buy_basket", "sell_basket_capacity_notional_usd": 0, "sell_basket_capacity_shares": 0, "sell_basket_capacity_vwap_notional_usd": null, "sell_basket_gross_edge_usd": -0.12, "sell_basket_net_edge_usd": -0.135 } }