Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent socie…
Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket odds and calendar. Async: 202 + forecast_id, poll free. Returns probability, 80% in…
by intel.degenscan.io · discovered, not yet claimed by its owner · updated 2026-09-30
Mirrored from Coinbase's public x402 Bazaar. The description is the provider's own text and has not been reviewed here; the payment requirements are copied as published.
What it does
Calibrated YES-probability for a binary market question: Monte Carlo of LLM agent societies + base-rate-anchored expert panel, grounded in live price, vol, funding, Polymarket odds and calendar. Async: 202 + forecast_id, poll free. Returns probability, 80% interval, edge vs market, drivers, commitment hash. Public Brier record.
Tags: finance · markets · events · crypto · stocks · bazaar
Call contract
- Method
- POST
- Input
- json
- Output
- json
- Last paid call
- 2026-09-30
{
"population": 24,
"question": "Will Bitcoin close above 120,000 USD on 2026-10-31?",
"resolves_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
"rounds": 3,
"runs": 8
}{
"done_example": {
"base_rate": 0.227,
"ci80": [
0.24,
0.41
],
"commitment_hash": "sha256…",
"confidence": "medium",
"edge": -0.031,
"market_odds": 0.35,
"probability": 0.319
},
"eta_s": 150,
"forecast_id": "3f9a1c2b7d4e",
"poll": "/v1/oracle/forecast/3f9a1c2b7d4e",
"status": "queued"
}Use with an agent
- Discover. Agents find this listing with
GET https://bazaar.saylorinnovations.com/discovery/search?query=…, the MCP toolsearch_resources, or/discovery/resources. - Inspect. Fetch
/resources/35030.jsonfor the price and payment options. - Pay. Call
GET https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast. The provider answers402with its payment requirements. An x402 client signs one of the options below and retries withPAYMENT-SIGNATURE. - Execute. The provider returns
200with the data. Agent Bazaar is not in the request path and never sees your payment.
For humans
You don't need an account or an API key; you need a wallet holding a small amount of USDC on Base, Solana, and an x402-capable client (see the examples below). Call the endpoint unpaid first to see exactly what it asks for.
Pricing & payment
- Price
- $0.25 / request
- Protocol
- x402 v2
- Auth
- No account or API key. Pay per request.
- Networks
- Base, Solana
- Demand
- 1 calls · 1 unique payers in 30d (public x402 Bazaar data)
x402 payment requirements
| Scheme | Network | Asset | Amount | Pay to | Timeout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact | Base eip155:8453 | USDC | $0.25 | 0x21f4A2DA07bccE60878cAb223358D11aD8F11a94 | 60s |
| exact | Solana solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp | USDC | $0.25 | GptpyPWpqUJHXs7G1Xp7zMs1MXidunsWDW4APKArRhez | 60s |
accepts[] (raw JSON)
[
{
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0x21f4A2DA07bccE60878cAb223358D11aD8F11a94",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"amount": "250000",
"amountUsd": 0.25,
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 60
},
{
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"payTo": "GptpyPWpqUJHXs7G1Xp7zMs1MXidunsWDW4APKArRhez",
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"amount": "250000",
"amountUsd": 0.25,
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 60
}
]Schemas
Output schema (JSON Schema)
{
"properties": {
"example": {
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}Example shape — generated from the schema, not a captured live response
{
"example": {},
"type": "string"
}Examples
curl "https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast"
# -> 402 Payment Required, accepts[] lists how to pay
# retry with a PAYMENT-SIGNATURE (or PAYMENT header) once paidconst res = await fetch("https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast");
if (res.status === 402) {
const { accepts } = await res.json();
// pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment header
}import httpx
res = httpx.get("https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast")
if res.status_code == 402:
accepts = res.json()["accepts"]
# pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment headerDetails
- Provider
- intel.degenscan.io
- Endpoint
- https://intel.degenscan.io/v1/oracle/forecast
- Machine-readable
/resources/35030.json