AI Inference · x402 · early usage

Prop-firm challenge pass probability and risk statistics from daily returns (block-boot…

Prop-firm challenge pass probability and risk statistics from daily returns (block-bootstrap Monte Carlo, no LLM)

by api.agentsouk.dev · discovered, not yet claimed by its owner · updated 2026-09-16

30d calls1

30d payers1

MethodPOST

Outputjson

Mirrored from Coinbase's public x402 Bazaar. The description is the provider's own text and has not been reviewed here; the payment requirements are copied as published.

What it does

Prop-firm challenge pass probability and risk statistics from daily returns (block-bootstrap Monte Carlo, no LLM)

Tags: trading · backtest · monte-carlo · prop-firm · risk · bazaar

Call contract

Method: POST
Input: json
Output: json
Last paid call: 2026-09-16

Input example from Bazaar metadata

{
  "block_length": 5,
  "daily_loss": 0.05,
  "daily_returns": [
    0.0042,
    -0.0018,
    0.0031,
    0.0007,
    -0.0125,
    0.0058,
    0.0021,
    -0.0033,
    0.0089,
    -0.0006,
    0.0014,
    0.0037,
    -0.0071,
    0.0052,
    0.0009,
    -0.0022,
    0.0066,
    0.0018,
    -0.0154,
    0.0047,
    0.0029,
    -0.0011,
    0.0073,
    0.0003,
    -0.0041,
    0.0038,
    0.0016,
    -0.0088,
    0.0061,
    0.0024,
    -0.0019,
    0.0045,
    0.0012,
    -0.0233,
    0.0079,
    0.0033,
    -0.0008,
    0.0056,
    0.0021,
    -0.0047
  ],
  "max_days": 42,
  "max_loss": 0.1,
  "scale": 3,
  "seed": 0,
  "simulations": 10000,
  "target": 0.1
}

Output example

{
  "caveats": [
    "Statistics of the numbers you sent, not a forecast: a bootstrap assumes the sent days are representative and cannot see regimes outside the sample.",
    "Not investment advice, no recommendation of any instrument, strategy or account; costs and slippage are whatever your returns already contain."
  ],
  "challenge": {
    "block_length": 5,
    "bust_by": {
      "daily_loss": 0.6321,
      "max_loss": 0.0036
    },
    "bust_probability": 0.6357,
    "days_to_target": {
      "median": 28,
      "p25": 21,
      "p75": 35
    },
    "pass_probability": 0.1937,
    "path_max_drawdown": {
      "p50": 0.0699,
      "p95": 0.1038
    },
    "seed": 0,
    "simulations": 10000,
    "standard_error": {
      "bust_probability": 0.00481233,
      "pass_probability": 0.00395197
    },
    "terminal_return": {
      "p25": -0.0525,
      "p5": -0.078,
      "p50": -0.0168,
      "p75": 0.0615,
      "p95": 0.108
    },
    "undecided_probability": 0.1706
  },
  "input_summary": {
    "block_length": 5,
    "daily_loss": 0.05,
    "days": 40,
    "max_days": 42,
    "max_loss": 0.1,
    "scale": 3,
    "seed": 0,
    "simulations": 10000,
    "target": 0.1,
    "trading_days_per_year": 252
  },
  "method": "Scaled returns added, not compounded. Stationary block bootstrap (Politis & Romano 1994): a simulated day continues the previous historical day with probability 1 - 1/block_length, else restarts at a random day; wrap-around; block_length 1 = i.i.d. Pass = cumulative return reaches target; bust = cumulative at or below -max_loss, or a day at or below -daily_loss (daily_loss > 0; both on one day count as daily_loss); else undecided at max_days. Population std, risk-free rate 0, linear quantiles, p-value (k + 1) / (B + 1). Six significant digits; standard_error is the sampling error. Deterministic per seed.",
  "stats": {
    "annualized_return": 0.19845,
    "annualized_volatility": 0.304474,
    "autocorr_lag1": -0.331302,
    "best_day": 0.0267,
    "cumulative_return": 0.0315,
    "cvar_95": 0.05805,
    "days": 40,
    "excess_kurtosis": 3.34271,
    "max_drawdown": 0.0699,
    "mean_daily": 0.0007875,
    "p_value_mean_gt_zero": 0.368816,
    "positive_days_ratio": 0.65,
    "sharpe": 0.651781,
    "skewness": -1.69243,
    "sortino": 0.784758,
    "std_daily": 0.01918,
    "var_99": 0.060657,
    "worst_day": -0.0699
  }
}

Use with an agent

Discover. Agents find this listing with GET https://bazaar.saylorinnovations.com/discovery/search?query=…, the MCP tool search_resources, or /discovery/resources.
Inspect. Fetch /resources/38451.json for the price and payment options.
Pay. Call GET https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6. The provider answers 402 with its payment requirements. An x402 client signs one of the options below and retries with PAYMENT-SIGNATURE.
Execute. The provider returns 200 with the data. Agent Bazaar is not in the request path and never sees your payment.

For humans

You don't need an account or an API key; you need a wallet holding a small amount of USDC on Base, and an x402-capable client (see the examples below). Call the endpoint unpaid first to see exactly what it asks for.

Pricing & payment

Price: $0.01 / request
Protocol: x402 v2
Auth: No account or API key. Pay per request.
Networks: Base
Demand: 1 calls · 1 unique payers in 30d (public x402 Bazaar data)

x402 payment requirements

Scheme	Network	Asset	Amount	Pay to	Timeout
exact	Base eip155:8453	USDC	$0.01	0xA0a2494006B72109137630bC026434a809731c07	900s

accepts[] (raw JSON)

[
  {
    "scheme": "exact",
    "network": "eip155:8453",
    "payTo": "0xA0a2494006B72109137630bC026434a809731c07",
    "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
    "amount": "10000",
    "amountUsd": 0.01,
    "maxTimeoutSeconds": 900
  }
]

Schemas

Output schema (JSON Schema)

{
  "properties": {
    "example": {
      "properties": {
        "caveats": {
          "items": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "type": "array"
        },
        "challenge": {
          "properties": {
            "block_length": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "bust_by": {
              "description": "a day breaking both rules counts under daily_loss",
              "properties": {
                "daily_loss": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "max_loss": {
                  "type": "number"
                }
              },
              "type": "object"
            },
            "bust_probability": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "days_to_target": {
              "description": "trading days until the target over the passing paths; null when none passed",
              "properties": {
                "median": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p25": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p75": {
                  "type": "number"
                }
              },
              "type": [
                "object",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "pass_probability": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "path_max_drawdown": {
              "properties": {
                "p50": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p95": {
                  "type": "number"
                }
              },
              "type": "object"
            },
            "seed": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "simulations": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "standard_error": {
              "description": "sampling error sqrt(p (1 - p) / simulations)",
              "properties": {
                "bust_probability": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "pass_probability": {
                  "type": "number"
                }
              },
              "type": "object"
            },
            "terminal_return": {
              "description": "cumulative return where each path stopped",
              "properties": {
                "p25": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p5": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p50": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p75": {
                  "type": "number"
                },
                "p95": {
                  "type": "number"
                }
              },
              "type": "object"
            },
            "undecided_probability": {
              "description": "neither target nor a rule within max_days",
              "type": "number"
            }
          },
          "type": "object"
        },
        "input_summary": {
          "properties": {
            "block_length": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "daily_loss": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "days": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "max_days": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "max_loss": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "scale": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "seed": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "simulations": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "target": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "trading_days_per_year": {
              "type": "integer"
            }
          },
          "type": "object"
        },
        "method": {
          "type": "string"
        },
        "stats": {
          "description": "of the scaled returns; every figure rounded to six significant digits",
          "properties": {
            "annualized_return": {
              "description": "mean_daily × trading_days_per_year",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "annualized_volatility": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "autocorr_lag1": {
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "best_day": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "cumulative_return": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "cvar_95": {
              "description": "mean loss of the worst 5 % of days; 0 when they are gains",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "days": {
              "type": "integer"
            },
            "excess_kurtosis": {
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "max_drawdown": {
              "description": "peak-to-trough of the added returns",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "mean_daily": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "p_value_mean_gt_zero": {
              "description": "(k + 1) / (B + 1), B = 2,000 i.i.d. resamples, k means at or below zero",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "positive_days_ratio": {
              "type": "number"
            },
            "sharpe": {
              "description": "risk-free rate 0; null without variance",
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "skewness": {
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "sortino": {
              "description": "null without a losing day",
              "type": [
                "number",
                "null"
              ]
            },
            "std_daily": {
              "description": "population standard deviation",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "var_99": {
              "description": "loss at the 1 % quantile of a day; 0 when it is a gain",
              "type": "number"
            },
            "worst_day": {
              "type": "number"
            }
          },
          "type": "object"
        }
      },
      "type": "object"
    },
    "type": {
      "type": "string"
    }
  },
  "required": [
    "type"
  ],
  "type": "object"
}

Example shape — generated from the schema, not a captured live response

{
  "example": {
    "caveats": [
      "string"
    ],
    "challenge": {
      "block_length": 0,
      "bust_by": {
        "daily_loss": 0,
        "max_loss": 0
      },
      "bust_probability": 0,
      "days_to_target": {
        "median": 0,
        "p25": 0,
        "p75": 0
      },
      "pass_probability": 0,
      "path_max_drawdown": {
        "p50": 0,
        "p95": 0
      },
      "seed": 0,
      "simulations": 0,
      "standard_error": {
        "bust_probability": 0,
        "pass_probability": 0
      },
      "terminal_return": {
        "p25": 0,
        "p5": 0,
        "p50": 0,
        "p75": 0,
        "p95": 0
      },
      "undecided_probability": 0
    },
    "input_summary": {
      "block_length": 0,
      "daily_loss": 0,
      "days": 0,
      "max_days": 0,
      "max_loss": 0,
      "scale": 0,
      "seed": 0,
      "simulations": 0,
      "target": 0,
      "trading_days_per_year": 0
    },
    "method": "string",
    "stats": {
      "annualized_return": 0,
      "annualized_volatility": 0,
      "autocorr_lag1": 0,
      "best_day": 0,
      "cumulative_return": 0,
      "cvar_95": 0,
      "days": 0,
      "excess_kurtosis": 0,
      "max_drawdown": 0,
      "mean_daily": 0,
      "p_value_mean_gt_zero": 0,
      "positive_days_ratio": 0,
      "sharpe": 0,
      "skewness": 0,
      "sortino": 0,
      "std_daily": 0,
      "var_99": 0,
      "worst_day": 0
    }
  },
  "type": "string"
}

Examples

curl

curl -X POST 'https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6' -H 'Content-Type: application/json' --data '{"block_length":5,"daily_loss":0.05,"daily_returns":[0.0042,-0.0018,0.0031,0.0007,-0.0125,0.0058,0.0021,-0.0033,0.0089,-0.0006,0.0014,0.0037,-0.0071,0.0052,0.0009,-0.0022,0.0066,0.0018,-0.0154,0.0047,0.0029,-0.0011,0.0073,0.0003,-0.0041,0.0038,0.0016,-0.0088,0.0061,0.0024,-0.0019,0.0045,0.0012,-0.0233,0.0079,0.0033,-0.0008,0.0056,0.0021,-0.0047],"max_days":42,"max_loss":0.1,"scale":3,"seed":0,"simulations":10000,"target":0.1}'
# -> 402 Payment Required; read PAYMENT-REQUIRED
# retry the identical request with PAYMENT-SIGNATURE

JavaScript

const res = await fetch("https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6", {
  "method": "POST",
  "headers": {
    "content-type": "application/json"
  },
  "body": "{\"block_length\":5,\"daily_loss\":0.05,\"daily_returns\":[0.0042,-0.0018,0.0031,0.0007,-0.0125,0.0058,0.0021,-0.0033,0.0089,-0.0006,0.0014,0.0037,-0.0071,0.0052,0.0009,-0.0022,0.0066,0.0018,-0.0154,0.0047,0.0029,-0.0011,0.0073,0.0003,-0.0041,0.0038,0.0016,-0.0088,0.0061,0.0024,-0.0019,0.0045,0.0012,-0.0233,0.0079,0.0033,-0.0008,0.0056,0.0021,-0.0047],\"max_days\":42,\"max_loss\":0.1,\"scale\":3,\"seed\":0,\"simulations\":10000,\"target\":0.1}"
});
if (res.status === 402) {
  const { accepts } = await res.json();
  // pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment header
}

Python

import httpx
import json
res = httpx.request("POST", "https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6", json=json.loads("{\"block_length\":5,\"daily_loss\":0.05,\"daily_returns\":[0.0042,-0.0018,0.0031,0.0007,-0.0125,0.0058,0.0021,-0.0033,0.0089,-0.0006,0.0014,0.0037,-0.0071,0.0052,0.0009,-0.0022,0.0066,0.0018,-0.0154,0.0047,0.0029,-0.0011,0.0073,0.0003,-0.0041,0.0038,0.0016,-0.0088,0.0061,0.0024,-0.0019,0.0045,0.0012,-0.0233,0.0079,0.0033,-0.0008,0.0056,0.0021,-0.0047],\"max_days\":42,\"max_loss\":0.1,\"scale\":3,\"seed\":0,\"simulations\":10000,\"target\":0.1}"))
if res.status_code == 402:
    accepts = res.json()["accepts"]
    # pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment header

Details

Provider: api.agentsouk.dev
Endpoint: https://api.agentsouk.dev/v1/x402/lst_01M2ND5C6502HRV8VA9PMG40W6
Machine-readable: /resources/38451.json