{
  "x402Version": 2,
  "id": 41158,
  "slug": "41158",
  "resource": "https://apexrunner.ai/signals/regime-transition-probability",
  "description": "APEX Runner: Regime Transition Probability Signal",
  "type": "http",
  "resourceType": "Utilities",
  "accepts": [
    {
      "scheme": "exact",
      "network": "eip155:8453",
      "payTo": "0x8D0663BBb967ebF1c047405A888DDf865f3E8854",
      "asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
      "amount": "7000",
      "amountUsd": 0.007,
      "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
    }
  ],
  "outputSchema": {
    "properties": {
      "example": {
        "properties": {
          "_apex": {
            "properties": {
              "evolution_runs": {
                "type": "integer"
              },
              "instance": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "live_capital_deployed": {
                "type": "boolean"
              },
              "live_trading": {
                "type": "boolean"
              },
              "signal": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "signal_hash": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "source": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "trades_backing_signal": {
                "type": "integer"
              },
              "trades_backing_signal_as_of": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "trading_status": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "verify_at": {
                "type": "string"
              },
              "version": {
                "type": "string"
              }
            },
            "type": "object"
          },
          "confidence": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "current_regime": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "data_age_seconds": {
            "type": "integer"
          },
          "data_points": {
            "type": "integer"
          },
          "key_factors": {
            "items": {},
            "type": "array"
          },
          "max_age_seconds": {
            "type": "integer"
          },
          "most_likely_next": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "signal": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "stale": {
            "type": "boolean"
          },
          "timestamp": {
            "type": "string"
          },
          "transition_probabilities": {
            "properties": {
              "CHOPPY": {
                "type": "number"
              },
              "CRISIS": {
                "type": "number"
              },
              "RANGING": {
                "type": "number"
              },
              "TRENDING": {
                "type": "number"
              }
            },
            "type": "object"
          },
          "transition_probability": {
            "type": "number"
          },
          "valid_for_seconds": {
            "type": "integer"
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      }
    },
    "type": "object"
  },
  "extensions": {
    "bazaar": {
      "category": "trading-signals",
      "description": "Exotic signal at $15. Mines APEX Runner's 2,988 real grid trades across Kraken, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid to build a regime transition matrix and predict probability of market regime shift within 4 hours. 82.8% historical win rate across 10 evolution runs — not simulated data. Built from real exchange OHLCV candles with actual order flow.",
      "example": {
        "confidence": "MEDIUM",
        "current_regime": "RANGING",
        "data_points": 2988,
        "key_factors": [
          "ADX rising from 22→28",
          "Volume expanding"
        ],
        "most_likely_next": "TRENDING",
        "signal": "PRE_TREND",
        "transition_probabilities": {
          "CHOPPY": 0.08,
          "CRISIS": 0.12,
          "RANGING": 0.45,
          "TRENDING": 0.35
        },
        "transition_probability": 0.55,
        "valid_for_seconds": 3600
      },
      "info": {
        "input": {
          "method": "GET",
          "type": "http"
        },
        "output": {
          "confidence": "string — LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH based on data points available",
          "current_regime": "string — current BTC market regime",
          "data_points": "integer — number of real APEX trade lessons used in matrix",
          "example": {
            "confidence": "MEDIUM",
            "current_regime": "RANGING",
            "most_likely_next": "TRENDING",
            "signal": "PRE_TREND",
            "transition_probabilities": {
              "CHOPPY": 0.08,
              "CRISIS": 0.12,
              "RANGING": 0.45,
              "TRENDING": 0.35
            },
            "transition_probability": 0.55
          },
          "key_factors": "array — top 3 technical factors influencing the prediction",
          "most_likely_next": "string — most probable next regime if transition occurs",
          "signal": "string — PRE_TREND / PRE_CRISIS / STABLE / UNCERTAIN",
          "transition_probabilities": "object — probability for each regime (RANGING/TRENDING/CRISIS/CHOPPY) summing to 1.0",
          "transition_probability": "float — overall probability of ANY regime change (0-1)",
          "type": "json"
        },
        "why_apex": {
          "live_system": "APEX trades real capital 24/7 on Kraken, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid simultaneously",
          "multi_exchange": "Cross-exchange data synthesis unavailable from any single-venue provider",
          "not_backtested": "All signals derived from live order flow — 2,988 real grid trades, 82.8% win rate across Kraken, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid",
          "self_evolving": "AI evolution engine runs nightly, signal logic improves from real outcomes"
        }
      },
      "name": "APEX Regime Transition Probability",
      "outputSchema": {
        "confidence": "string",
        "current_regime": "string",
        "most_likely_next": "string",
        "signal": "string",
        "transition_probabilities": "object",
        "transition_probability": "float"
      },
      "schema": {
        "properties": {
          "input": {
            "properties": {
              "queryParams": {
                "properties": {},
                "type": "object"
              }
            },
            "required": [
              "method"
            ],
            "type": "object"
          },
          "output": {
            "properties": {
              "example": {
                "properties": {
                  "_apex": {
                    "properties": {
                      "evolution_runs": {
                        "type": "integer"
                      },
                      "instance": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "live_capital_deployed": {
                        "type": "boolean"
                      },
                      "live_trading": {
                        "type": "boolean"
                      },
                      "signal": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "signal_hash": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "source": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "trades_backing_signal": {
                        "type": "integer"
                      },
                      "trades_backing_signal_as_of": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "trading_status": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "verify_at": {
                        "type": "string"
                      },
                      "version": {
                        "type": "string"
                      }
                    },
                    "type": "object"
                  },
                  "confidence": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "current_regime": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "data_age_seconds": {
                    "type": "integer"
                  },
                  "data_points": {
                    "type": "integer"
                  },
                  "key_factors": {
                    "items": {},
                    "type": "array"
                  },
                  "max_age_seconds": {
                    "type": "integer"
                  },
                  "most_likely_next": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "signal": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "stale": {
                    "type": "boolean"
                  },
                  "timestamp": {
                    "type": "string"
                  },
                  "transition_probabilities": {
                    "properties": {
                      "CHOPPY": {
                        "type": "number"
                      },
                      "CRISIS": {
                        "type": "number"
                      },
                      "RANGING": {
                        "type": "number"
                      },
                      "TRENDING": {
                        "type": "number"
                      }
                    },
                    "type": "object"
                  },
                  "transition_probability": {
                    "type": "number"
                  },
                  "valid_for_seconds": {
                    "type": "integer"
                  }
                },
                "type": "object"
              }
            },
            "type": "object"
          }
        },
        "type": "object"
      },
      "version": "1.0.0"
    }
  },
  "tags": [
    "bazaar"
  ],
  "sourceHost": "apexrunner.ai",
  "lastUpdated": "2026-10-12T04:18:28.469Z",
  "quality": {
    "calls30d": 2,
    "uniquePayers30d": 2,
    "lastCalledAt": "2026-10-12T04:18:28.305Z"
  },
  "metadata": {
    "extensions": {
      "bazaar": {
        "category": "trading-signals",
        "description": "Exotic signal at $15. Mines APEX Runner's 2,988 real grid trades across Kraken, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid to build a regime transition matrix and predict probability of market regime shift within 4 hours. 82.8% historical win rate across 10 evolution runs — not simulated data. Built from real exchange OHLCV candles with actual order flow.",
        "example": {
          "confidence": "MEDIUM",
          "current_regime": "RANGING",
          "data_points": 2988,
          "key_factors": [
            "ADX rising from 22→28",
            "Volume expanding"
          ],
          "most_likely_next": "TRENDING",
          "signal": "PRE_TREND",
          "transition_probabilities": {
            "CHOPPY": 0.08,
            "CRISIS": 0.12,
            "RANGING": 0.45,
            "TRENDING": 0.35
          },
          "transition_probability": 0.55,
          "valid_for_seconds": 3600
        },
        "info": {
          "input": {
            "method": "GET",
            "type": "http"
          },
          "output": {
            "confidence": "string — LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH based on data points available",
            "current_regime": "string — current BTC market regime",
            "data_points": "integer — number of real APEX trade lessons used in matrix",
            "example": {
              "confidence": "MEDIUM",
              "current_regime": "RANGING",
              "most_likely_next": "TRENDING",
              "signal": "PRE_TREND",
              "transition_probabilities": {
                "CHOPPY": 0.08,
                "CRISIS": 0.12,
                "RANGING": 0.45,
                "TRENDING": 0.35
              },
              "transition_probability": 0.55
            },
            "key_factors": "array — top 3 technical factors influencing the prediction",
            "most_likely_next": "string — most probable next regime if transition occurs",
            "signal": "string — PRE_TREND / PRE_CRISIS / STABLE / UNCERTAIN",
            "transition_probabilities": "object — probability for each regime (RANGING/TRENDING/CRISIS/CHOPPY) summing to 1.0",
            "transition_probability": "float — overall probability of ANY regime change (0-1)",
            "type": "json"
          },
          "why_apex": {
            "live_system": "APEX trades real capital 24/7 on Kraken, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid simultaneously",
            "multi_exchange": "Cross-exchange data synthesis unavailable from any single-venue provider",
            "not_backtested": "All signals derived from live order flow — 2,988 real grid trades, 82.8% win rate across Kraken, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid",
            "self_evolving": "AI evolution engine runs nightly, signal logic improves from real outcomes"
          }
        },
        "name": "APEX Regime Transition Probability",
        "outputSchema": {
          "confidence": "string",
          "current_regime": "string",
          "most_likely_next": "string",
          "signal": "string",
          "transition_probabilities": "object",
          "transition_probability": "float"
        },
        "schema": {
          "properties": {
            "input": {
              "properties": {
                "queryParams": {
                  "properties": {},
                  "type": "object"
                }
              },
              "required": [
                "method"
              ],
              "type": "object"
            },
            "output": {
              "properties": {
                "example": {
                  "properties": {
                    "_apex": {
                      "properties": {
                        "evolution_runs": {
                          "type": "integer"
                        },
                        "instance": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "live_capital_deployed": {
                          "type": "boolean"
                        },
                        "live_trading": {
                          "type": "boolean"
                        },
                        "signal": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "signal_hash": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "source": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "trades_backing_signal": {
                          "type": "integer"
                        },
                        "trades_backing_signal_as_of": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "trading_status": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "verify_at": {
                          "type": "string"
                        },
                        "version": {
                          "type": "string"
                        }
                      },
                      "type": "object"
                    },
                    "confidence": {
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "current_regime": {
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "data_age_seconds": {
                      "type": "integer"
                    },
                    "data_points": {
                      "type": "integer"
                    },
                    "key_factors": {
                      "items": {},
                      "type": "array"
                    },
                    "max_age_seconds": {
                      "type": "integer"
                    },
                    "most_likely_next": {
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "signal": {
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "stale": {
                      "type": "boolean"
                    },
                    "timestamp": {
                      "type": "string"
                    },
                    "transition_probabilities": {
                      "properties": {
                        "CHOPPY": {
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "CRISIS": {
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "RANGING": {
                          "type": "number"
                        },
                        "TRENDING": {
                          "type": "number"
                        }
                      },
                      "type": "object"
                    },
                    "transition_probability": {
                      "type": "number"
                    },
                    "valid_for_seconds": {
                      "type": "integer"
                    }
                  },
                  "type": "object"
                }
              },
              "type": "object"
            }
          },
          "type": "object"
        },
        "version": "1.0.0"
      }
    }
  },
  "liveness": {
    "reliability": null
  },
  "verified": false,
  "featured": false,
  "provider": {
    "host": "apexrunner.ai",
    "manifest_name": "apexrunner.ai",
    "source": "cdp-mirror",
    "source_manifest_url": "https://api.cdp.coinbase.com/platform/v2/x402/discovery/resources",
    "submitted_at": "2026-10-14T01:15:01.050Z"
  },
  "exampleResponse": {
    "confidence": "MEDIUM",
    "current_regime": "RANGING",
    "most_likely_next": "TRENDING",
    "signal": "PRE_TREND",
    "transition_probabilities": {
      "CHOPPY": 0.08,
      "CRISIS": 0.12,
      "RANGING": 0.45,
      "TRENDING": 0.35
    },
    "transition_probability": 0.55
  }
}