Live Polymarket watchlist ranked by structural UMA resolution base-rate signals, with flip
Live Polymarket watchlist ranked by structural UMA resolution base-rate signals, with flip risk kept as a separate conditional axis. BEFORE YOU PAY: free substitute https://dash.polym.uk/markets.json and https://dash.polym.uk/uma-base-rates.json. THIS ADDS: The live subset ranked by structural dispute signals, computed for you. The inputs are in the free files; the ranking and the tiering are what this adds.
50000 (raw units)
price
4
calls / 30d
1
unique payers
2026-09-07
updated
Provider
api.polym.uk · discovered, not yet claimed by its owner
Payment (x402 accepts[])
[
{
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"amount": "50000",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
}
]Output schema
{
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"top": 25
},
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-09-01T02:31:34.907Z",
"caveats": [
"SHOWCASE, NOT THE PAID RESPONSE: what you see is one ranked row of the watchlist. markets is cut to 1 of the 8 rows this response carried. Nothing is masked or invented: every value is a dated measurement, kept so you can read the shape, the units and the field semantics. The schema published beside it is complete; a paid call returns the complete set.",
"EXAMPLE ONLY: a paid response captured from api.polym.uk on 2026-09-01 with top=8, then frozen. A live response carries its own asOf and current values. The row count is bounded by the 402 challenge header budget, not by the route: top accepts 1 through 40.",
"Structural BASE RATE for the category and criterion. Not a prediction that THIS market will be disputed or reversed. A fact, not an accusation.",
"tier uses the RANK-stable signal (category elevated by consensus across two samples, plus a title with no checkable threshold, read from the TITLE and not from the resolution rules), not the absolute dispute rate, which varies about 16-fold between samples.",
"LIVE markets only, and liveness must have been MEASURED (marketClosed === false). A market whose Gamma context was not fetched is absent rather than assumed open. Drawn from the set decomposed by window volume; this is not the whole Polymarket universe.",
"flipProne is omitted when the category flip sample is small and therefore directional. Category is a title heuristic."
],
"flipReferencePct": 14.6,
"flipReferenceStatus": "measured",
"flipReferenceWithheldReason": null,
"howToRead": "Ranks LIVE markets by STRUCTURAL resolution risk. tier counts how many DISPUTE-axis signals are present (category elevated by consensus, plus a title with no checkable threshold): elevated=2, watch=1, baseline=0. flipProne is a separate axis: if disputed, the outcome tends to REVERSE (category rate at or above the overall rate). Both axes are conditional, and flip alone never raises the tier.",
"liveMarketsRanked": 8,
"markets": [
{
"apparentVolumeUsd": 46599.79,
"category": "Geopolitics",
"categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume": 35.2,
"categoryElevated": true,
"conditionId": "0x9b94d7e2e7250d156b02435f4d59634d357dc789d842eaee15c35c1158d5bca4",
"disputeFlagCount": 2,
"flags": {
"categoryElevated": true,
"flipProne": false,
"titleLooksUncheckable": true
},
"flipRatePct": null,
"marketClosed": false,
"tier": "elevated",
"title": "US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?",
"titleLooksUncheckable": true
}
],
"tierCounts": {
"elevated": 6,
"watch": 2
},
"windowHours": 71.94
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"schema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"top": {
"default": 25,
"maximum": 40,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
}
},
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"asOf": {
"format": "date-time",
"type": "string"
},
"caveats": {
"items": {
"type": "string"
},
"type": "array"
},
"flipReferencePct": {
"description": "Overall flip reference rate, in percent. `null` means WITHHELD, never a default: see flipReferenceStatus and flipReferenceWithheldReason. When it is null, flipProne was not evaluated on any row.",
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0,
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"flipReferenceStatus": {
"enum": [
"measured",
"withheld"
],
"type": "string"
},
"flipReferenceWithheldReason": {
"type": [
"string",
"null"
]
},
"howToRead": {
"type": "string"
},
"liveMarketsRanked": {
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"markets": {
"items": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"apparentVolumeUsd": {
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume": {
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
},
"categoryElevated": {
"type": "boolean"
},
"conditionId": {
"description": "Polymarket condition ID.",
"pattern": "^0x[0-9a-fA-F]{64}$",
"type": "string"
},
"disputeFlagCount": {
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"flags": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"categoryElevated": {
"description": "Category flagged elevated by consensus across both dispute samples. Dispute axis; counts toward tier.",
"type": "boolean"
},
"flipProne": {
"description": "Separate conditional axis: if disputed, this category reverses at or above the overall rate. Never raises the tier.",
"type": "boolean"
},
"titleLooksUncheckable": {
"description": "The title states no checkable threshold. Dispute axis; counts toward tier. Read from the title only.",
"type": "boolean"
}
},
"required": [
"categoryElevated",
"titleLooksUncheckable",
"flipProne"
],
"type": "object"
},
"flipRatePct": {
"maximum": 100,
"minimum": 0,
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"marketClosed": {
"type": [
"boolean",
"null"
]
},
"tier": {
"enum": [
"elevated",
"watch",
"baseline"
],
"type": "string"
},
"title": {
"type": "string"
},
"titleLooksUncheckable": {
"type": "boolean"
}
},
"required": [
"conditionId",
"title",
"tier",
"disputeFlagCount",
"flags",
"category",
"titleLooksUncheckable",
"categoryElevated",
"categoryDisputeRatePctHighVolume",
"flipRatePct",
"apparentVolumeUsd",
"marketClosed"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": "array"
},
"tierCounts": {
"additionalProperties": {
"minimum": 0,
"type": "integer"
},
"type": "object"
},
"windowHours": {
"minimum": 0,
"type": "number"
}
},
"required": [
"asOf",
"windowHours",
"liveMarketsRanked",
"tierCounts",
"flipReferencePct",
"markets",
"howToRead",
"caveats"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}
}
}Use it
curl
curl "https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist" # -> 402 Payment Required, accepts[] lists how to pay # retry with a PAYMENT-SIGNATURE (or PAYMENT header) once paid
JavaScript
const res = await fetch("https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist");
if (res.status === 402) {
const { accepts } = await res.json();
// pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment header
}Python
import httpx
res = httpx.get("https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist")
if res.status_code == 402:
accepts = res.json()["accepts"]
# pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment headerMachine-readable
Everything on this page is also available as clean JSON at /resources/1363.json, and this resource appears in /discovery/resources and /discovery/search.