What does the market think? Ask any event question in plain English and get the implied pr
What does the market think? Ask any event question in plain English and get the implied probability from live Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets: per-venue odds, a liquidity-weighted consensus forecast, and a cross-venue divergence flag.
15000 (raw units)
price
4
calls / 30d
2
unique payers
2026-09-05
updated
Provider
x402.fenixfoundry.com · discovered, not yet claimed by its owner
Payment (x402 accepts[])
[
{
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"payTo": "0x737426d3eD53930B889b3f61774669a0FDf3BE54",
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"amount": "15000",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 60
}
]Output schema
{
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"body": {
"maxMarkets": 4,
"q": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?"
},
"bodyType": "json",
"method": "POST",
"type": "http"
},
"output": {
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z",
"attribution": "Implied probabilities and resolution status are derived from public Polymarket and Kalshi market data by x402.fenixfoundry.com. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a data feed of either venue. Informational only, not investment advice.",
"confidence": 0.82,
"divergence": 0.05,
"markets": [
{
"closeTime": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z",
"id": "fed-rate-cut-september-2026",
"liquidity": 412000,
"matchScore": 0.91,
"probability": 0.64,
"question": "Will the Fed cut interest rates before September 2026?",
"status": "open",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-september-2026",
"venue": "polymarket",
"volume": 1850000
},
{
"closeTime": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
"id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP",
"liquidity": 88000,
"matchScore": 0.83,
"probability": 0.59,
"question": "Fed cuts rates at or before the September 2026 meeting",
"status": "open",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision-26sep",
"venue": "kalshi",
"volume": 240000
}
],
"probability": 0.6312,
"query": "Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?",
"source": "index"
},
"type": "json"
}
},
"schema": {
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"properties": {
"input": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"body": {
"additionalProperties": false,
"properties": {
"maxMarkets": {
"default": 6,
"description": "Maximum number of matched markets to aggregate and return (top-K by match quality). Defaults to 6.",
"maximum": 10,
"minimum": 1,
"type": "integer"
},
"q": {
"description": "Natural-language description of the event you want odds for, e.g. \"Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?\". Matched against Polymarket and Kalshi market questions.",
"maxLength": 500,
"minLength": 3,
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"q"
],
"type": "object"
},
"bodyType": {
"enum": [
"json",
"form-data",
"text"
],
"type": "string"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"POST"
],
"type": "string"
},
"type": {
"const": "http",
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type",
"method",
"bodyType",
"body"
],
"type": "object"
},
"output": {
"properties": {
"example": {
"properties": {
"asOf": {
"type": "string"
},
"attribution": {
"type": "string"
},
"confidence": {
"description": "0..1 — match quality x venue coverage x liquidity.",
"type": "number"
},
"divergence": {
"description": "Highest minus lowest venue probability; a large value means the venues disagree.",
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"markets": {
"description": "Top-K matched markets only, never a bulk market dump.",
"items": {
"properties": {
"closeTime": {
"type": [
"string",
"null"
]
},
"id": {
"description": "Polymarket slug or Kalshi ticker.",
"type": "string"
},
"liquidity": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"matchScore": {
"type": "number"
},
"probability": {
"type": "number"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"status": {
"enum": [
"open",
"closed",
"resolved"
],
"type": "string"
},
"url": {
"type": "string"
},
"venue": {
"enum": [
"polymarket",
"kalshi"
],
"type": "string"
},
"volume": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
}
},
"required": [
"venue",
"id",
"question",
"url",
"probability"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": "array"
},
"probability": {
"description": "Liquidity-weighted cross-venue implied probability, 0..1. Null when no market matched.",
"type": [
"number",
"null"
]
},
"query": {
"type": "string"
},
"source": {
"enum": [
"index",
"live"
],
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"probability",
"confidence",
"markets",
"divergence",
"asOf",
"attribution"
],
"type": "object"
},
"type": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"required": [
"type"
],
"type": "object"
}
},
"required": [
"input"
],
"type": "object"
}
}
}Use it
curl
curl "https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability" # -> 402 Payment Required, accepts[] lists how to pay # retry with a PAYMENT-SIGNATURE (or PAYMENT header) once paid
JavaScript
const res = await fetch("https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability");
if (res.status === 402) {
const { accepts } = await res.json();
// pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment header
}Python
import httpx
res = httpx.get("https://x402.fenixfoundry.com/probability")
if res.status_code == 402:
accepts = res.json()["accepts"]
# pay one of accepts[] via an x402 client, then retry with the payment headerMachine-readable
Everything on this page is also available as clean JSON at /resources/2981.json, and this resource appears in /discovery/resources and /discovery/search.